Is the Crypto Bear Market Ending Soon? 3 Key Signals to Watch and 1 Major Warning

Bitcoin has surged to $69,000 amid news of potential ceasefire talks between the US and Iran. This jump wiped out $196 million in short positions, sparking hope that the might be fading. But is it really over? On-chain experts point to <3 key signals> that could confirm a shift, while one big reminds us to stay cautious.

Bitcoin’s Big Jump: What Sparked the Rally?

Right now, Bitcoin trades at around $69,230, up over 3.5% in the past day. The trigger? Reports of active talks for a 45-day ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz conflict, with mediators like Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey involved. Short sellers took a heavy hit—$196 million liquidated, with shorts outnumbering longs 3-to-1.

This move tests the upper end of Bitcoin’s five-week range between $65,000 and $73,000. A clean break above $71,000 could target $80,000, as volatility heats up with the conflict nearing a possible end.

The <3 Key Signals> That End Every Bear Market

On-chain analyst Willy Woo shared a clear framework for spotting the end of a . These <3 key signals> mark a true regime shift:

1. Price Breaks Recent Investor Cost Basis: Bitcoin’s price must exceed the average buy-in level of new investors. This flips early doubt into confidence.
2. From Passive Hope to Aggressive Buying: Idle optimism turns into real action. Traders stop hoping and start chasing the price with buys.
3. Demand Pushes Cost Basis Green: On-chain data shows the overall holder cost basis move from loss (red) to profit (green). This surge in demand locks in the bull shift.

Are we seeing these now? Long-term holders (LTH) control about 80% of Bitcoin’s supply—close to the 85% historical bottom marker. Fresh data shows LTH supply growing positively for the first time since November, adding 308,000 BTC on average. This behavioral change often leads to price gains.

Technical Views: $71K as the Make-or-Break Level

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe eyes $71,000 as key resistance. A break here, amid rising volatility, could spark a test of $80,000—the first real breakout since tensions rose.

Bitcoin’s charts show mixed signals: strong buy on moving averages but sell on oscillators. We’ve seen similar ceasefire-fueled pumps before, only for them to fade. $71K could settle the debate.

Broader Bullish Setup: Why April Could Be the Turn

• ETH/BTC Pair: Ethereum against Bitcoin shows strength, hinting at altcoin season.
• Russell 2000 Breakout: Small-cap stocks have broken out and retested, matching patterns before big risk-on moves in past cycles.
• Macro Tailwinds: Potential Fed rate cuts, stablecoin regs like CLARITY Act, and TradFi inflows could supercharge 2026’s second half.

April looks like the last corrective month. May could bring sustained upside if signals align.

The <1 Major Warning>: High Volatility Ahead

Don’t get too excited yet. The Strait of Hormuz endgame this week means wild swings. Past ceasefire teases lifted prices temporarily before pullbacks. LTH supply isn’t at 85% yet, and on-chain shifts are early. Watch for all <3 key signals> to confirm before calling the dead.

Final Thoughts: Eyes on $71K

The market splits between bulls and bears. Bitcoin’s push to $69K on ceasefire news feels bullish, backed by strong LTH data and technical setups. But the real test is $71K and those <3 key signals>. Stay tuned as we track if the truly ends—or if volatility delivers another fakeout.

What do you think? Will Bitcoin break out, or is this just noise? Share in the comments.