Bitcoin Breakout Imminent? Analyst Predicts 70% Odds of New All-Time Highs
Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Rally to New Highs or a Brief Pullback First?
The crypto market is buzzing with anticipation as one analyst projects that Bitcoin (BTC) has a 70% probability of hitting new all-time highs within the next two weeks. With strong institutional demand and bullish on-chain metrics painting a positive picture, many traders are preparing for a significant upward move. However, key liquidity zones lurking just below the current price suggest a short-term dip could be on the cards before the next major leg up. So, which path will Bitcoin take?
Decoding the Bullish Signals: Why a Rally Could Be Next
Several key indicators are aligning to support the bullish outlook. According to crypto researcher Axel Adler Jr., the market is currently in a balanced state, perfectly primed for a move higher without being overheated. This analysis is based on several factors:
- Healthy On-Chain Metrics: The Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-Scores, which help gauge if the market is over or undervalued, are hovering near zero. This suggests the market is in a neutral zone, providing a solid foundation for a sustainable rally rather than a speculative bubble.
- Seasonal Tailwinds: With the historically bullish month of October approaching, Adler Jr. notes that an “Uptober incoming” sentiment could provide an extra boost.
- Positive Derivatives Market: Bitcoin futures are consistently trading at a premium compared to the spot price. This structure, known as contango, typically signals bullish sentiment among traders who are willing to pay more for BTC in the future.
Adler Jr. summarizes the sentiment by stating, “There’s a 70% chance the next two weeks will see a stepwise uptrend or sideways consolidation,” indicating that the path of least resistance appears to be upward.
The Wall of Money: How Bitcoin ETFs Are Driving Demand
Perhaps the most powerful force behind Bitcoin’s recent strength is the relentless demand from institutional investors via spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since September 9 alone, these investment vehicles have seen a staggering $2.8 billion in net inflows.
This sustained wave of institutional capital provides a strong price floor, absorbing selling pressure and reinforcing bullish market structures. As long as this demand continues, it significantly reduces the likelihood of a deep correction and keeps the focus on upside potential.
The Final Hurdle: Could a Dip to $114,000 Happen First?
Despite the overwhelmingly positive outlook, a potential obstacle remains. Bitcoin’s recent 8.5% rally from $107,000 to over $117,800 has left behind pockets of “internal liquidity” — essentially, clusters of orders — around the $114,000 to $113,000 range. In technical analysis, price is often drawn to these zones to fill orders before continuing its primary trend.
However, Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has often defied expectations for such retracements. On several occasions, including a similar setup in July, BTC bypassed these internal liquidity pools and surged directly to new highs. The current strength from ETF inflows and improving macroeconomic conditions suggests buyers may step in aggressively, limiting any potential dip.
The Two Paths for Bitcoin: Key Levels to Watch
The market is now at a pivotal point, with two clear scenarios ahead. The deciding factor will be how Bitcoin reacts to its current resistance.
- The Direct Breakout: If bulls can push the price to a daily close above the $117,500 level, it would confirm a bullish “break of structure.” This would signal that momentum is firmly in control, sharply reducing the odds of a dip and opening the door for a swift test of new all-time highs, with some analysts eyeing $124,000 as the next major target.
- The Liquidity Retest: If Bitcoin fails to break through resistance, it could see a brief pullback to test the support and order blocks near the $114,000–$113,000 zone. This would offer a chance for sidelined buyers to enter before a potential continuation of the uptrend.
Ultimately, the balance between immense buying pressure from ETFs and the technical magnet of lower liquidity will determine Bitcoin’s next move. While a short-term dip remains possible, the overwhelming evidence suggests that the path to new highs is becoming clearer by the day.
