Bitcoin Cycle History Signals Potential $31,500 Bottom Target – Full Breakdown
Bitcoin Cycle History Signals Potential <$31,500 Bottom Target> – Full Breakdown
Bitcoin price action has been tough lately. The top crypto is stuck below the $70,000 level. This makes many fear a bigger drop ahead. A well-known analyst, Yonsei_dent, spotted a pattern from past cycles. It points to a possible low near <$31,500 Bottom Target>. Let’s break it down step by step.
What is Happening with Bitcoin Price Right Now?
Bitcoin sits at around $63,500 as of this writing. It dropped 5.8% in the last day. Trading volume is steady at $40 billion. Over the week, it’s down 6.2%, and the month shows a 27% loss. The big wall at $70,000 blocks any quick bounce. Without breaking it, sellers might push prices lower. Or we could see a long sideway move.
Since October, Bitcoin lost over 45% from its peak near $126,000. It hit lows around $60,000. Bearish eyes are on more downside. But on-chain data gives clues about what comes next.
The Key Indicator: Bitcoin Supply In Profit
Analyst Yonsei_dent used the Supply In Profit metric from CryptoQuant. This tool shows what part of all Bitcoin in circulation is worth more today than when it last moved. Simple idea: if most coins are in profit, the market is hot near tops. When few are, it’s near bottoms.
This indicator swings big in cycles:
- Near cycle tops: Supply In Profit hits high levels, like 90%+.
- Near cycle bottoms: It drops sharp, under 20-30%.
Why care? It spots greed and fear in real holder behavior, not just price charts.
Historical Cycles: Lessons from the Past
Look back at 2022. Bitcoin topped at $69,000. Then crashed 77% to $15,500. The Supply In Profit stayed in the “bottom zone” for six months. That was the pain phase before recovery.
Yonsei_dent overlaid that six-month bottom period on today’s chart. From the recent all-time high of $126,000, it suggests a 70-75% total drawdown. That lands Bitcoin in the $31,500 to $38,000 range.
From current $63,500, that’s a further 41-51% drop. Tough, but cycles repeat patterns. Past bears:
| Cycle Peak | Drawdown % | Bottom Price |
|---|---|---|
| 2017: $20,000 | 84% | $3,200 |
| 2021: $69,000 | 77% | $15,500 |
| 2025?: $126,000 | 70-75%? | $31,500-$38,000 |
Each cycle gets less severe. Halvings drive this: supply cuts every four years boost scarcity.
Why This <$31,500 Bottom Target> Makes Sense
Bitcoin cycles follow a rhythm. Bull runs after halvings, then long bears. We’re post-2024 halving. Euphoria hit $126,000. Now correction time.
Supply In Profit isn’t alone. Other signs agree:
- Realized Price: Average cost basis for holders. Often bottoms align here.
- MVRV Z-Score: Measures over/undervaluation. Low scores near bottoms.
- RHODL Ratio: Old vs new coins. Spikes at lows.
If history rhymes, expect pain before gain. But time in bottom zone: about six months.
Current Market Risks and What to Watch
Bulls need $70,000 break to flip sentiment. Failure? Test $60,000 support, then lower.
Key levels:
- Resistance: $70,000, $75,000.
- Support: $60,000, $55,000, then <$31,500 Bottom Target>.
Macro factors play in: Fed rates, ETF flows, elections. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold strong amid dips. But whale sells add pressure.
Bullish Counterpoints: Not All Doom
Not everyone sees deep red. Some say:
- Institutional buying caps downside.
- Halving effects last longer now.
- Network growth: More users, hash rate highs.
Supply In Profit could recover faster with ETF demand. A quick macro shift (rate cuts) sparks rebound.
How to Prepare for Bitcoin’s Next Phase
Volatility is crypto’s middle name. Strategies:
- Dollar-cost average: Buy dips over time.
- Set alerts: At key levels like $60k or $38k.
- Diversify: Don’t go all-in BTC.
- Track on-chain: Tools like CryptoQuant, Glassnode.
Patience wins cycles. Bottoms feel endless, but they birth bulls.
Final Thoughts on <$31,500 Bottom Target>
Bitcoin’s historical cycle pattern, via Supply In Profit, eyes $31,500-$38,000 lows. A 70-75% drawdown fits the script. Current fragility below $70k backs caution. Yet, cycles end. Watch indicators, stay informed. The next leg up could be massive.
Bitcoin marches on. Will it hit that bottom? Time tells. Keep eyes on charts and data.
