Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin stalls amid mixed U.S. CPI data and 93% rate cut odds

Bitcoin Hits a Wall as Mixed Economic Signals Create Market Gridlock

Bitcoin’s recent rally has hit a significant pause, with the world’s leading cryptocurrency struggling to find direction. After a period of bullish momentum, BTC is now consolidating in a tight range between $118,000 and $120,000. This hesitation comes directly on the heels of the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which delivered a mixed bag of data and left investors feeling uncertain about the future.

While some metrics point towards cooling inflation, others suggest persistent underlying price pressures, creating a complex puzzle for the market. The current situation perfectly illustrates how , leaving traders and investors cautiously waiting for a clearer signal before making their next move.

Dissecting the CPI Data: A Tale of Two Numbers

The July 2025 CPI data is at the heart of the market’s current indecision. On one hand, the headline annual inflation rate came in at 2.7%, a figure that shows a continued slowdown from previous highs. This was initially seen as a positive sign for risk assets like Bitcoin, which typically perform well in lower-inflation, lower-interest-rate environments.

However, the devil is in the details. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, came in slightly hotter than expected at 3.1%. This suggests that underlying inflation is stickier than many had hoped, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation isn’t over. This conflict between headline and core data has injected a heavy dose of uncertainty, effectively neutralizing any strong bullish or bearish sentiment.

Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar, But Caution Prevails

In response to the inflation data, the market is now pricing in a more than 93% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near future. A rate cut would decrease the cost of borrowing and could inject more liquidity into the markets, providing a significant tailwind for assets like Bitcoin.

Despite these high odds, the market remains on edge. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has consistently emphasized a longer, 12-month outlook on inflation, signaling that the central bank will not rush into a policy pivot. This cautious stance from the Fed has tempered excitement over a potential rate cut, leading traders to adopt a wait-and-see approach. The result has been significant liquidations, with over $43.8 million in Bitcoin long positions being wiped out as the price failed to break out.

A Diverging Market: Ethereum Shines While Bitcoin Stalls

Interestingly, the broader crypto market isn’t moving in lockstep. While Bitcoin remains stagnant, its closest competitor, Ethereum (ETH), has been showing signs of strength and is gaining momentum towards its previous all-time highs. This divergence highlights a key shift in market dynamics:

• Bitcoin’s Sensitivity: As a macro asset, Bitcoin’s price is heavily influenced by global economic data and central bank policy. The current uncertainty is weighing it down more than other cryptos.
• Ethereum’s Catalysts: ETH may be benefiting from its own ecosystem-specific drivers, such as developments in DeFi, Layer-2 scaling solutions, or institutional adoption of its smart contract platform.

This split performance suggests that while macro factors are dominant, individual asset narratives still play a crucial role in the crypto space.

Institutional Confidence vs. Market Jitters

Beneath the surface of the short-term price chop, there are signs of long-term confidence. Reports indicate that institutional players have been accumulating Bitcoin during this consolidation phase, viewing the current prices as a strategic entry point. This institutional buying is a strong bullish signal for the long-term health of the asset.

However, this confidence hasn’t yet trickled down to all corners of the market. Stocks of publicly traded Bitcoin miners, such as Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Marathon Digital (MARA), have experienced slight declines. This reflects investor skepticism about near-term profitability, especially if Bitcoin’s price remains stalled and energy costs are impacted by persistent inflation.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

The coming weeks are shaping up to be critical for Bitcoin. The market is caught in a tug-of-war between bullish long-term fundamentals and bearish short-term macroeconomic uncertainty. Traders are closely monitoring for two key developments:

1. Clearer Signals from the Fed: Any definitive statements from the Federal Reserve regarding its timeline for rate cuts could break the current deadlock.
2. Upcoming Economic Data: Future inflation and employment reports will be scrutinized for a clearer trend, which could finally give the market a firm direction.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase. While the potential for a major move is building, the market is holding its breath, waiting for the fog of economic uncertainty to clear.