Bitcoin Taps $111.3K as Forecast Says 10% Dip is the ‘Worst-Case Scenario’

Bitcoin Holds Key Level as Market Debates Next Move

Bitcoin’s price is navigating turbulent waters, holding steady above the critical $111,000 mark after a recent dip. While bulls managed to defend key support levels, the market remains on a knife’s edge, with analysts offering diverging views on what comes next. As the weekly candle closes, the big question is whether this is a temporary pause before a new surge or the calm before a deeper correction. However, some technical analysis suggests that even a significant drop might not be as bad as feared, with one forecast claiming a <10% dip is the ‘worst-case scenario’> for the digital asset.

The Tug-of-War: Key Support and Resistance Levels

After a brief scare prompted by US macroeconomic data, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience, climbing back to a local high of $111,369. This rebound, which saw bulls protect the $110,000 support zone, was seen by some traders as a “promising” sign of strength. However, the path forward is littered with significant hurdles.

Traders are closely watching several key price points that could dictate Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory:

• Immediate Resistance ($112,000 – $113,000): This is the first major test for the bulls. A failure to decisively reclaim this zone could signal weakness and invite further selling pressure. A successful flip of this level into support, on the other hand, could open the door to a rally toward new highs.
• Crucial Support ($107,000 – $108,000): If the upward momentum stalls, analysts expect a pullback toward this area. Losing this support could trigger a more significant downturn.
• The Psychological Barrier ($100,000): A drop below the levels mentioned above would put the psychologically important $100,000 mark in play. This level is also reinforced by technical indicators like the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which currently sits around $101,760.

Reading the Technical Tea Leaves: Fibonacci and Moving Averages

Beyond simple support and resistance, technical indicators offer a more nuanced view. The 50-day SMA, currently around $115,035, acts as a significant resistance point, while the 200-day SMA near $101,760 provides a strong floor for the price.

Interestingly, Fibonacci retracement analysis offers a dose of optimism for long-term holders. Historical data shows that during this bull cycle, Bitcoin has a habit of bottoming out at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This pattern was observed in Q3 2024 and Q2 2025. If history repeats itself, any potential correction could be limited to around 10% from current levels, presenting what many traders are calling a “Black Friday sale” or a prime accumulation opportunity.

Market Dynamics: A Leverage Flush or a Bear Trap?

The current price action isn’t just about charts and numbers; it’s also about market psychology and liquidity. Some theories suggest that the recent volatility is a calculated move by market makers to flush out over-leveraged positions and accumulate Bitcoin at a lower price. This “liquidity cleaning” is seen as a necessary evil to build a solid foundation for the next major leg up.

This narrative is supported by the idea of a potential giant short squeeze. In this scenario, market makers could be manipulating the price to trap short-sellers before engineering a powerful rally to new all-time highs, echoing the dramatic price movements seen in late 2024.

Conclusion: Patience is Key in a Choppy Market

Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. While the risk of a deeper drop toward the $100,000-$106,000 range remains, strong technical and historical data suggests such a move could be a bottoming signal rather than the start of a bear market. For now, the market is caught between immediate bearish pressure and underlying bullish strength. Traders and investors are advised to remain patient, watch the key levels, and remember that volatility is a standard feature of the crypto landscape. The consensus among many analysts is that while the short-term path may be rocky, the mid-term outlook remains overwhelmingly positive.