Bitcoin trembles at the $100,000 mark. What’s keeping pressure on the price?

The $100,000 Stand-Off: Bitcoin’s Bull Run Hits a Wall

The year kicked off with bold predictions of Bitcoin soaring to $200,000, but reality has delivered a much more sobering picture. Instead of celebrating new all-time highs, investors are anxiously watching as the world’s top cryptocurrency struggles to hold its ground. The much-anticipated “Uptober” surge never arrived. Instead, the total crypto market cap bled out roughly $800 billion, a staggering 19% drop in value.

Currently, Bitcoin is locked in a tense battle around a critical price point. As one OTC trader at the firm Wintermute noted, “The market now seems to be tipping again, chopping around the critical $100,000 level, a zone that continues to be defended firmly.” This isn’t just a number on a chart; it’s a massive psychological barrier for the entire market. The big question is: with so many seemingly positive developments, why is the price faltering?

A Paradox: Bullish News Fails to Ignite the Market

On paper, 2025 should have been a victory lap for the crypto industry, especially in the United States. Since President Donald Trump’s administration took office, it has delivered on several key items from the industry’s wishlist:

• The pardon of Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao.
• The release of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.
• The signing of pro-crypto executive orders and a landmark stablecoin bill.

Adding to these political tailwinds, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in October—a move that historically fuels investment in risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Yet, despite this seemingly perfect storm of positive news, the price has remained stubbornly suppressed, or even fallen.

Unpacking the Downward Pressure: Three Key Factors

Analysts are pointing to a combination of internal market trauma, outdated investor psychology, and looming macroeconomic fears that are keeping prices in check.

1. A Crisis of Confidence from Market Shocks

The crypto market is still reeling from two major blows that shattered investor confidence. The October 10 market crash triggered a cascade of liquidations totaling an eye-watering $20 billion. As if that wasn’t enough, the DeFi space was rocked again by a massive $128 million hack on the Balancer protocol on November 3. According to the head of research at perpetual-trading platform Derive, the market desperately needs a period of calm. “No insolvency announcements, nor hacks, would re-establish trust in the market,” he stated.

2. Are Investors Playing by an Outdated Rulebook?

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, suggests another part of the problem lies with investors themselves. He believes many long-term holders are operating on the old “four-year cycle” narrative. “Adherents to this framework are locking in profits, convinced that the cycle top is approaching,” Butterfill explained. This self-fulfilling prophecy sees experienced investors selling their positions to secure gains, which in turn drives the price down and reinforces the belief that the peak is in.

3. Gloomy Macroeconomic Headwinds

Crypto doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The broader economic climate is casting a long shadow over all markets. In the U.S., consumer sentiment has plummeted to near-record lows amid rising inflation, unemployment, and political uncertainty from trade wars and government shutdowns. Globally, there’s a growing fear that the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble could be on the verge of bursting, which would have a chilling effect on all tech-related and speculative assets, including Bitcoin.

The Long-Term Outlook: Is There Still Hope?

Despite the current turbulence as Bitcoin trembles at the <$100,000 mark>, many market watchers remain bullish on its long-term prospects. The current volatility, while unsettling, is not unprecedented.

“While the pullback is likely to rattle some investors, volatility of this scale is not unusual,” commented a crypto analyst from eToro. He pointed out that earlier in the year, Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop from $109,000 down to $74,500 before rallying to its latest all-time high of $126,000.

Some predictions remain incredibly optimistic. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently reiterated his belief that Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2028, fueled by governments continuing to issue massive amounts of debt.

For now, the market is at a crossroads. Analysts at Galaxy Digital have tempered their expectations, revising their year-end forecast from $185,000 down to a more modest $120,000. The path forward depends on whether the crypto space can avoid further catastrophic hacks, whether investors can adapt to new market dynamics, and whether the global economy can find stable footing. The battle for $100,000 is more than just a price fight—it’s a test of the market’s resilience and maturity.