BTC price bull market lost? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin’s Bull Run Hangs in the Balance
Bitcoin starts the week on a knife’s edge, with its bull market status seriously in question as price predictions from analysts diverge dramatically. After a sharp downturn, BTC has erased all its yearly gains, leaving traders and investors caught between hopes for a swift recovery and fears of a prolonged bear market. The current price action is a whirlwind of conflicting signals, from bearish technical breakdowns to potential bounce zones just within reach.
As the market digests the recent volatility, five key factors have emerged that will likely dictate Bitcoin’s direction in the coming days and weeks. Here’s what you need to know.
1. Bitcoin Wipes Out Yearly Gains, Battles at a Critical Level
Over the weekend, Bitcoin’s price fell back to its opening level for the year, dipping below the crucial $93,000 mark. This complete roundtrip has sent shockwaves through the market, creating a climate of intense uncertainty.
On-chain data and order books show a market divided. According to some analysts, large-scale buyers are stepping in. One trader noted on X (formerly Twitter) that “Binance whales have placed big buy orders between the $88,500-$92,000 level,” suggesting a potential floor of support. However, for the bulls to regain control, a significant move upward is needed. Many experts agree that the next key level for Bitcoin to reclaim is $98,000, which would increase the chances of establishing a local bottom.
2. The $92,000 Magnet: An Old CME Gap Comes into Play
A major point of focus for short-term traders is an unfilled “gap” in the CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market. These gaps are created when the market’s closing price on a Friday differs from its opening price on a Sunday. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has shown a strong tendency to return and “fill” these gaps.
An unusually persistent gap from April, located between $91,800 and $92,700, is now tantalizingly close. The recent price drop brought BTC within spitting distance of this zone, which has acted as a price magnet for over six months. As trading resource QCP Capital noted in a market update, “The 92k region also coincides with an unfilled CME gap, increasing the odds of a short-term technical bounce if tested.”
3. A Major Bearish Signal? Bitcoin Loses a Key Long-Term Trendline
While a bounce from the CME gap is possible, a much more concerning development is unfolding on the weekly chart. For the first time since March 2023, Bitcoin has decisively closed below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a critical indicator of its long-term health. The 50-week SMA, currently around $102,850, has historically served as a reliable support line during bull cycles.
Losing this trendline is a rare and historically significant event. “Bitcoin has never lost the 50-week MA and still been in a bull cycle,” one trading account warned. In fact, the few times BTC has lost this support in its history have typically been associated with the start of bear markets.
Adding to the concern, the price has also broken below the “cloud” formed by the 50-week SMA and its exponential moving average (EMA) counterpart. As trader Jelle summarized bluntly, the trend has been “officially lost” for the first time since BTC was trading at $22,000.
4. The Great Disconnect: Bitcoin Trades Like a “Leveraged Tech Stock”
On the macroeconomic front, Bitcoin is behaving unusually. Instead of acting as a safe haven like gold, its correlation with the precious metal is now “essentially zero.” Crypto has also failed to rally on positive macro news, such as the reopening of the U.S. government.
Instead, Bitcoin is showing an increasingly high correlation with large-cap technology stocks. According to trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index recently hit 0.80, its highest since 2022. This suggests the market is treating Bitcoin not as a separate asset class, but as a high-risk, “leveraged tech stock.” This isolated downturn, driven by leverage and liquidations, explains why stock futures remained green even as the crypto market shed over $100 billion.
5. Fear Takes the Wheel: Market Sentiment Plummets to “Extreme Fear”
Reflecting the grim price action, market sentiment has completely collapsed. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a popular gauge of investor emotion, has plunged to a score of 10 out of 100. This reading signifies “extreme fear” and marks the lowest point since late February.
The current atmosphere is being compared to the dark days following the FTX exchange implosion in late 2022. While extreme fear can persist for long periods, it is often seen as a contrarian indicator. Research platform Santiment noted that while it’s “not a guaranteed crypto bottom signal, probabilities of a market reversal greatly increase when social dominance for Bitcoin surges” amid such widespread pessimism.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
The path forward for Bitcoin is shrouded in uncertainty. On one hand, the historic break of the 50-week moving average paints a grim, bearish picture for the medium term. On the other, the nearby CME gap and rock-bottom market sentiment could provide the fuel for a powerful short-term relief bounce. For now, the crypto bull cycle hangs in the balance, and all eyes will be on these five key areas to see which force—hope or fear—wins out.
