Crypto Market Update: Crude Oil Surges Pre-Non-Farm Payroll as Bitcoin Tests Support – 80% Analysts Bullish on BTC
Crypto Market Update: Pre- as Bitcoin Tests Support – 80% Analysts Bullish on BTC
Markets are on edge right now. Traders watch key events like the upcoming
Big Macro Events Ahead: Non-Farm Payroll and Daylight Saving Time Shift
The US non-farm payroll report for February drops soon. Experts predict just 55,000 to 59,000 new jobs added. Last month saw 130,000. If numbers beat forecasts, US Treasury yields could climb. This might hurt risk assets like Bitcoin.
Also, North America starts daylight saving time on March 8. US stocks open one hour earlier. Trading hours shift to 21:30-4:00 Beijing time. Get ready for adjusted schedules.
- US Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.3% (same as before)
- Non-Farm Payrolls: 55,000 expected (down from 130,000)
Firms like PGIM warn: Strong jobs data fuels higher yields and risk-off mood.
Middle East Chaos Drives
Geopolitical fires rage in the Middle East. Iranian drones hit the USS Lincoln carrier. This sparked a crisis, even evacuating 150 schoolchildren. Strait of Hormuz traffic nearly stopped – only two cargo ships passed in 24 hours, no oil tankers.
Fear of supply cuts pushed prices up:
- Brent Crude: Near $90/barrel
- WTI Crude: Past $82/barrel, new highs
JPMorgan says storage tanks near full. Middle East output could drop 3.3 million barrels/day soon. Saudi Aramco hiked Asia prices by $2.50/barrel.
Trump stays tough: “Let oil rise; military action matters more.” He vows to end Iran’s leadership. US Treasury eyes shorting oil futures to cool prices. Plus, a 30-day waiver lets India buy stuck Russian crude (9.5 million barrels).
On crypto side, Hyperliquid’s WTI crude contracts volume jumped 140% month-on-month. HIP-3 market hit $22 billion total volume – 30% from traditional assets like oil, stocks, gold.
AI Computing Power War Hits Chips and Miners
AI chip race turns geopolitical. US plans global export controls on NVIDIA, AMD AI accelerators. Trump wants America as AI ‘gatekeeper’.
Chip stocks dipped: NVIDIA -1.9% intraday (closed +0.16%), AMD -2.3%. Panic signs show.
AI infra costs soar – a ‘money-burning game’. JPMorgan to spend $20B on AI, biggest ever for banks. Oracle’s cash flow went negative, plans layoffs.
Bitcoin miners pivot hard. CleanSpark sold 97% of February BTC output ($36M+) for AI data centers. Since October, public miners dumped 15,000+ BTC:
- Cango: 4,451 BTC (60% holdings)
- Bitdeer: Full inventory in January
- Core Scientific: 2,500 BTC Q1 plan
- CleanSpark: 553 BTC Feb (holds 13,363)
Hash price crashed from $39 to $30 low. Miners chase AI profits over BTC mining.
Bitcoin Price Action: Pressure Mounts, But Bulls Dominate
BTC dropped 3% from $74K high to ~$71K, testing $69,420 support. BTC/gold ratio in 13-month downtrend since Dec 2024 peak.
MicroStrategy holds 720,737 BTC at $76K avg – key psych level. $2.3B BTC options expire March 6, max pain $69K. BTC above $70K, eyes $75K, but call selling caps upside.
Key stat: 80% analysts bullish on BTC per unbias data.
Bear Views
- CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno: On-chain bearish, rally is ‘relief bounce’.
- Murphy: MVRV extreme, resistance $74-78K.
- Roman: No volume, retest leads lower.
- Godot: No FOMO, institutions harvest option value.
Bull Views
- CryptoReviewing: Bears wiped, clear $73K for highs.
- TurboBullCapital: $63K demand zone, then $75K test.
- Cyril-DeFi: Reset in uptrend, hold $70K.
- Ali Charts: $70,685 support, vacuum to $81K.
Short-term pullback? Healthy in big uptrend. DCA wins long-term.
Ethereum Struggles at Key Levels
ETH touched $2,200 but fell to above $2,000. $380M options expire today, max pain $1,950. Bulls/bears fight at $2,100.
Bear Case
- Culper Research shorts ETH: Fusaka upgrade tanked gas fees 90%, fake activity from dusting (22.5% txns).
- UB: No breakout, short below $2,150.
Bull Case
- CryptoQuant: Coinbase premium high, US buys return.
- Cyril-DeFi: Retest channel support, rebound likely.
- Crypto Patel: Hold $1,750, target $2,500-2,600.
- Man of Bitcoin: Trendline retest to $2,340-$3,400.
Altcoins in Crisis, But Bright Spots Emerge
38% altcoins near all-time lows – worse than FTX crash. Fear & Greed at 18 (Extreme Fear). $227M liquidations: BTC $104M, ETH $40M, SOL $10M.
ETFs outflows: BTC -$228M, ETH -$91M, SOL -$5M, XRP -$6M.
Top Upbit volume: XRP, BTC, BARD, ETH, SIGN. AI sector +2%.
Resilient gems:
- OKB +26.7% (ICE invested in OKX, val $25B)
- Kite +24.4%, River +18.2%
TradFi-crypto bridge: Kraken’s xChange for 24/7 tokenized Apple/Tesla stocks. Russia eyes crypto licenses for banks. Binance lists copper perpetuals.
Upcoming Events and Token Unlocks
- March 6: HyperLiquid 173K HYPE unstake to team
- March 7: Coinbase lists LMTS; OP unlock 19.5M ($2.4M); RED 40.85M ($6.2M)
- SEC/CFTC push CLARITY Act
Final Thoughts: Opportunity in Chaos?
Stay cautious. Watch NFP data closely. Long-term? Bitcoin as digital gold shines amid fiat woes.
Data from CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles.