Bitcoin’s Point to a $40K-$46K Bottom

Bitcoin has followed a clear four-year pattern for many years. It rises to a big high, drops to a low, and then starts to recover. This pattern lines up with the halving events that cut new bitcoin supply in half. Even as the impact of halvings gets smaller, the data shows the four-year cycle is still holding strong.

The peak in October 2025 was the calmest top ever seen. The drop since then has also been milder than past cycles. This raises a key question. If the high was so quiet, will the low also be higher than before?

Why the Bottom Is Likely Not Here Yet

The current drop stands at about 51 percent so far. Past cycles saw falls of 77 to 85 percent before they ended. Only eight months have passed since the top. History shows bottoms usually come 12 to 13 months after a peak. That points to a window opening later in 2026.

Many classic bottom signals are still missing. These include the price falling below the average cost basis that holders paid, big waves of loss selling, and a deep break below the long-term moving average. Only four out of thirteen key signs have appeared. The rest are still quiet.

How a Calm Top Raises the Floor

Because the October 2025 high was so tame, the average price people paid for their coins sits much closer to the peak than in earlier cycles. This cost basis is now around 44 percent of the all-time high. In past cycles it was far lower.

When the cost basis starts higher, even a normal-style bottom lands at a higher dollar price. The math is simple. A typical bottom that once meant an 85 percent drop now points much higher because the starting line is closer to the peak.

Where the Data Points for the Low

Looking at past patterns and current levels, the base case points to a bottom between $40,000 and $46,000. This range assumes the cycle keeps compressing and bottoms form a bit higher each time.

• A harsher washout could reach $30,000 to $37,000.
• A very mild outcome might stay near $51,000 to $54,000.
• The four-year moving average sits around $62,000 and has acted as support in the past.

These levels sit well above the old rule of thumb that called for 75 to 85 percent drops. That old rule no longer fits because the top was so calm.

What Could Change the Picture

The cost basis can still move lower if a real panic hits and coins change hands at big losses. A 10 to 30 percent drop in the cost basis would pull the expected floor down with it. On the other side, steady buying from ETFs and companies could help support prices and keep the low higher.

Right now the price is still above the cost basis. It has not yet crossed into the deep loss zone that marked every past bottom. This is another sign the low is probably still ahead.

Key Takeaways

The four-year cycle remains real, but its swings are getting smaller on both the upside and downside. A quiet top has lifted the floor, yet it has not removed the need for a real bottom. The data suggests waiting for more bottom signals to light up before calling the low in.

Bitcoin moves in waves, and the current wave has more room to run based on timing, depth, and on-chain clues. The base case range of $40,000 to $46,000 gives a clear target to watch as 2026 unfolds.