Odds Plummet to Near Zero After April, Galaxy Digital Expert Warns

The clock is ticking for the U.S. , a key piece of crypto legislation. Experts warn that if it misses a tight April deadline, its chances of passing anytime soon could drop to almost nothing. This bill aims to bring clear rules to digital assets, but roadblocks in Congress are piling up fast.

What is the and Why Does It Matter?

The seeks to create a solid framework for crypto markets in the U.S. It covers everything from stablecoins to decentralized finance (DeFi) and protections for developers. Right now, crypto firms face confusion over which rules apply. Clear laws could boost innovation, attract investment, and help the U.S. stay ahead in blockchain tech.

Without it, the industry risks more uncertainty. Big players like exchanges and stablecoin issuers want rules that let them grow without constant legal fights. Banks worry about competition from crypto yields. This clash is slowing things down.

Tight Timeline: April Deadline Looms Large

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, sounded the alarm over the weekend. He said the bill must clear committee by the end of April. If not, odds of passage in 2026 fall to “extremely low.” It also needs to hit the Senate floor by early May at the latest.

Why so urgent? Other bills are jumping the queue. The SAVE America Act, which demands proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration, takes priority. This pushes the back, squeezing the calendar before key deadlines.

• End of April: Committee approval needed.
• Early May: Senate floor vote.
• Midterms and elections: Could delay further.

Biggest Roadblocks: Stablecoin Rewards and More

The hottest debate centers on stablecoin rewards. These are interest-like payments on dollar-pegged tokens. Crypto fans love them for yields. Banks fear they could pull deposits and shake up the system.

Thorn notes that fixing this issue might not be enough. New fights could pop up over:

• DeFi rules: How to regulate lending and trading without apps.
• Developer protections: Shields for coders building blockchain tools.
• Regulatory power: Who oversees what in crypto.

These divides split crypto and banking lobbies. Both sides must compromise for the bill to move.

Lawmakers Weigh In: Optimism vs. Caution

Senator Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), on the Senate Banking Committee, said this week that everyone will need to give ground. “All of us will probably walk away just a little bit unhappy,” she noted. This shows even supporters see tough trades ahead.

Earlier, Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) was upbeat. In February, he told CNBC the bill could pass “hopefully by April.”

But not all views match. TD Cowen analysts predicted in January it might drag to 2027. They warned of even later rollout—up to 2029—if Democrats delay past midterms and take chamber control.

President Trump added pressure on March 4. He slammed banks for stalling over stablecoin yields. “The US needs to get Market Structure done, ASAP,” he posted.

What Could Delay It Further?

Politics play a huge role. Midterm elections could shift power. If one party controls both chambers, votes might stall. Stablecoin fights alone have held up progress for months.

Galaxy’s Thorn highlights hidden risks. Once stablecoins are settled, DeFi and other issues could spark fresh battles. This layered drama makes quick passage tough.

Implications for Crypto: What If It Fails?

A stalled means more gray areas for crypto. Firms might move offshore, hurting U.S. jobs and innovation. Stablecoin growth could slow without clear yield rules. DeFi builders face higher legal risks.

On the flip side, passage would signal U.S. commitment to crypto. It could spark a bull run, draw billions in capital, and level the field with banks.

Investors should watch April closely. Missing the mark could mean years of wait. Stay tuned for updates on this pivotal bill.

Final Thoughts

The hangs by a thread. With Galaxy’s stark warning, the crypto world waits. Will Congress act fast, or let time slip away? Clear rules could unlock massive growth—delays risk leaving the U.S. behind.

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